On July 7th the left wing electoral alliance, New Popular Front(NPF), won a plurality in the French legislative elections. These results have been described as a “Historic Victory” by the leading US left-wing publication, Jacobin, however a path to power for the NPF is questionable. The NPF is neither a truly popular or united front, two major obstacles to its ability to form a ruling coalition in the French Parliament. Despite these factors, there is a real chance for the French Left to capitalize on the seats won.
In the election’s first round the far right National Rally(NR) won a third of the popular vote, with the NFP and centrist ensemble coming behind with roughly a quarter of the vote each. Different from other 2 round systems, see Los Angeles’s jungle primary, any party that secures 12.5% of the vote share from registered voters in a constituency may run their candidate for that specific constituency in the second round. This threshold resulted in 306 constituencies eligible for 3-way races. Backroom-politicking between the center right Republicans, Ensemble, and the NPF aimed at staving off votes from the National Rally resulted in the withdrawal of 134 NFP and 82 Ensemble candidates. The electoral front against the NR left 89 three-way runoffs remaining for the second round.
The tactical withdrawal of candidates from Ensemble and the Republicans played dividends in holding the far right at bay, with the NR only increasing their seats by 66 between the first and second rounds. Additionally, the NR only succedded in re-electing 57% of its candidates.
However, the NPF had a similar re-election rate to the NR + allies and both alliances gained a similar amount of seats from their standing in the previous assembly, around 50, so it is unclear whether this tactical victory can be treated as a strategic one for the left. Future “republican fronts” cannot be guaranteed, especially considering the 15% of first-round Ensemble voters who voted for RN candidates in the second round and the 15 Ensemble candidates who refused to back down from participating in the second round.
These results leave France in a hung assembly between its electoral alliances. With rounds of political deadlock in the horizon these results are likely a fluke -- and should raise caution even for those on the left who believe the farce that a leftist-liberal coalition government can energize the working class towards sustained victory.